The Uranium Renaissance: Nuclear Energy's Second Act
Policy Shift
The COP28 pledge to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 was the inflection point. Since then, 22 countries have announced new reactor programs, and uranium prices have doubled from $50 to $100/lb. This is not a speculative bubble — it's a fundamental repricing of a commodity that was neglected for a decade.
Supply Gap
Current global uranium production covers roughly 75% of reactor demand. The deficit is filled by drawdowns of utility inventories and secondary supply (Russian downblending, which is now restricted by sanctions). As inventories deplete, utilities must contract directly with miners at incentive prices ($80-100/lb).
Uranium Supply-Demand (Mlb U3O8)
| Source | 2024 | 2026E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mine Production | 145 | 155 | 175 |
| Secondary Supply | 35 | 20 | 10 |
| Total Supply | 180 | 175 | 185 |
| Reactor Demand | 190 | 200 | 230 |
| Deficit | -10 | -25 | -45 |