Copper: The Metal That Tells You Where the Economy Is Going
The Breakout
Copper futures closed above $5.20/lb last week — a new all-time high. This breakout has been building since Q3 2025, driven by a combination of supply constraints and improving demand from China's infrastructure stimulus.
Supply-Demand Balance (kt)
| Year | Supply | Demand | Balance | Price Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22,400 | 22,100 | +300 | $4.15 |
| 2025 | 22,800 | 23,200 | -400 | $4.65 |
| 2026E | 23,100 | 24,000 | -900 | $5.20+ |
The structural deficit is real and widening. New mine supply takes 7-10 years to bring online, while EV and grid infrastructure demand grows at 4-5% annually. This is a multi-year bull market, not a speculative spike.